The US military has launched a new series of classified wargames to prepare for a hypothetical scenario: a nuclear weapon detonating in low-Earth orbit. The first exercise, part of the Apollo Insight program, brought together over 60 commercial companies and allies to simulate the consequences of such an event. The scenario, described as a “notional worst-case scenario,” aimed to explore how the US and its partners might respond to a violation of the Outer Space Treaty, which prohibits placing weapons of mass destruction in orbit.
Gen. Stephen Whiting, head of US Space Command, discussed the wargames during a Mitchell Institute event. He emphasized the program’s focus on blending military and commercial expertise to address threats in space. “We brought 60-something companies together at the classified level to share insights into what such a detonation might do,” he said. The exercise included participation from allies like Australia, Canada, and the UK, according to a Space Command press release.
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The scenario’s implications are stark. A nuclear explosion in orbit could destroy or disable thousands of satellites, crippling global communication and surveillance networks. US officials warn that such an event would render portions of low-Earth orbit unusable for up to a year, with effects felt worldwide. “It’s not just an attack on the US—it’s an attack on the world,” said a former defense official.
Russia’s potential interest in orbital nuclear weapons has raised alarms. In 2021, Rep. Mike Turner, chair of the House Intelligence Committee, warned that Russia was considering deploying such a weapon. Biden administration officials later acknowledged that Russia is exploring the option, despite treaty restrictions. While no nuclear weapon has been placed in orbit, Russia is reportedly operationalizing conventional anti-satellite weapons. Mysterious satellites launched by Russia are shadowing US spy satellites, adding to concerns.
The Apollo Insight program includes four tabletop exercises this year. The next will focus on orbital maneuver warfare, followed by scenarios involving satellite constellations and missile defense. Space Command aims to leverage commercial technologies, which have become critical in modern warfare. For example, Starlink has provided battlefield communications during the Russia-Ukraine war, and commercial firms are leading advancements in drone and anti-drone systems.
The Space Force has deepened partnerships with commercial companies, contracting for satellite manufacturing, launch services, and surveillance. These collaborations now extend to areas like satellite refueling and weather data. “The US commercial space industry is a massive advantage,” Whiting said. “We have to leverage that capability.”
Space Command is also exploring the use of commercial satellites as targets for testing tracking systems. High delta-V maneuvers, which could help satellites evade detection, are a focus. However, challenges remain. Companies like those monitoring satellite jamming in Ukraine may need legal protections or indemnification, the Office of the Secretary of War for Space Policy has noted. This raises questions about how to balance risk and innovation in the commercial sector.
The wargames highlight a growing recognition that space is a contested domain. As technology advances, so does the need for cooperation between military and commercial entities. The exercises are a step toward preparing for threats that could disrupt not just national security, but global infrastructure. For now, the focus remains on avoiding a future that, as Whiting put it, “we do not want to see.”
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